📊 ‘The Model’: France Takes the Eurovision Lead in New Update 🇫🇷

The latest projection from ‘The Model’, Eurovoix’s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, says France is most likely to win Eurovision 2025.

The Model initially projected Sweden to win the contest two weeks ago in its first prediction – however, demonstrating its ability to change and adapt, the system now believes Louane is the favourite to win the contest for France.

On what is Mother’s Day in the UK, The Model projects that if Eurovision 2025 was held today, “Maman” would take victory with 471 points, 30 points clear of KAJ’s “Bara Bada Bastu”. The points total would mainly come from huge support in the jury, where The Model projects France will score 317 points.

If France were to win the contest in May, it would bring an end to a 48-year wait for the country to take the crown. “Maman” would also be the third consecutive Eurovision Song Contest winner to not receive the highest amount of points from the public.

Louane has been projected as the favourite to win the contest by The Model, a system that uses data like betting odds, community song rankings, historical voting patterns and even internal musical statistics to try and predict which songs stand the best chance of winning the contest.

Using this data, The Model calculates the expected points of every song in both the semi finals and final of the contest. This prediction is not a forecast, as such, but a ‘nowcast’ – a calculation of what would happen if Eurovision 2025 was held right now.

As a result, The Model’s projections will change over time as the data it consumes changes. Different songs will shift up and down the order depending on their popularity, and The Model will also account for future announcements like song revamps and even tactical voting.

Last year, The Model successfully projected on the day of the Grand Final that Switzerland would win Eurovision 2024. For more information on what The Model is, and how it works, read our guide here:

Under the Hood of The Model

A quick aside from me, James, The Model’s designer – since its last projection, some updates have been made to The Model to refine its methodology, with two key areas changing.

The first is in the weighting of historical voting on the result of the semi-final televote. After analysing the first projection, The Model understated this in the semi-finals, resulting in countries struggling to score high points from the public vote from their traditional allies.

This led to some countries having lower points than would be expected – as a result, this metric has been strengthened to be in line with its previous 2024 design. As a result, you should see a more realistic spread of points within the semi finals – this metric is unchanged in the final.

Secondly, I tried a new calculation for working out the relative strength of songs in both the jury and public voting in all shows. While this produced the kinds of variances expected, for some countries it overstated their historical performance. This produced some jury/televote splits that were extreme and, as a result, this has been reset to the 2024 design.

Now, with that in mind, let’s get into The Model’s latest update.

Semi-Final One

In Semi-Final One, there are some changes to the positions of the countries competing. However, the top story is that the top 10 nations remain the same.

Despite the announcement of the semi-final running orders this Thursday shaking things up within The Model, the system is still confident of which countries will make it to Saturday’s final. Notably, though, the changes in the methodology outlined earlier have reduced the gap between the countries still trying to get in to the top 10 spots.

At the top of the board remain Sweden. KAJ’s song “Bara Bada Bastu” is now projected to score 161 points in the first semi-final, reflecting the increased amount of points spreading around the entries in the semis. With an average of around 9.5 points earned from each country, though, The Model feels like this is the entry that can gain consistent support across Europe’s voters.

Behind them is Ukraine, who have been slightly remodelled to reflect their recent outperformance in the public vote, upgrading to 135 points for their song “Bird of Prey”. That shift upwards for Ukraine moves The Netherlands and Claude down to third place, with “C’est la Vie” now predicted to score 123 points from the public.

Belgium is one of the biggest climbers in The Model’s latest update, with Red Sebastian’s song “Strobe Lights” projected in fourth place. It’s seen strong upward movement in the betting odds over the weekend, similarly to when they were top of the odds before their national final – but is it sustainable? Tommy Cash rounds out the Top 5 for Estonia with “Espresso Macchiato” on 97 points.

Behind them, Norway and Albania are expected to qualify with solid points totals in sixth and seventh place respectively. Then San Marino, Poland and Cyprus are close together in the final three qualifying spots, with just six points separating the trio.

Poland in particular have fallen in The Model’s latest update, reflecting their selection in “death slot” number 2 in the running order, while Cyprus is boosted by being selected to close the show. That puts Cyprus 14 points clear of their nearest challengers for qualification, 11th placed Iceland with 44 points, despite VAEB taking the opening spot.

Azerbaijan follow in 12th with 29 points, with Croatia, Portugal and Slovenia rounding out the rest of the table for this projection. All of these countries have gained points thanks to the methodology update, but The Model still believes that they have a lot of ground to cover before they have a chance of reaching the Grand Final in Basel.

Semi-Final Two

Semi-Final Two was initially projected by The Model as being much tougher to predict than the first show. And, in its latest projection, this seems set to continue.

With the running order for the second semi-final being revealed, The Model has taken the placements of the songs into account. And, from those changes, a new qualifier has emerged compared to last time – Luxembourg is now being projected to make the final, with Denmark making way.

Laura Thorn is the biggest beneficiary, then, of The Model’s second projection. With the update in voting methodology ensuring it gets higher points from countries like France and Israel, as well as a strong 13th spot in the running order, the system thinks Luxembourg will be able to get enough points to finish eighth in Thursday’s show.

Denmark, however, have gone in the other direction. “Hallucination” finds itself in a tougher running order position, with Sissal needing to perform after France and before Adonxs sings “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” for Czechia. As a result, they’ve dropped to 12th in the latest projection from The Model, which would mark Denmark’s fifth straight exit at this stage.

Towards the top end of the board, the top five countries are all in the same positions as last time. Israel is projected to win the semi-final with 172 points, with Finland a further 14 behind in second. However, the points totals they are being projected to earn have changed quite a bit.

Third-placed Austria are expected to now score 126 points, 34 points less than in the last projection. Meanwhile, Australia benefit massively from taking the opening spot in the show, climbing from 69 to 100 points in this update while remaining in fifth place. Malta stays in fourth, with The Model expecting the public to serve Miriana Conte 114 points.

Behind them, two moodier songs take sixth and seventh place, with Czechia and Lithuania expected to qualify relatively comfortably with “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” and “Tavo Akys”. Behind them, though, it’s very close between several countries on the borderline of qualifying.

Luxembourg have climbed to eighth, meaning Greece fall one place to ninth despite gaining two points since The Model’s first projection. Taking the final spot, as they were last time, is Ireland. Emmy’s “Laika Party” has built up a small gap to its nearest challenger, Latvia, with ten points now separating the songs.

Tautumeitas are seen as the nearest challengers for one of the 10 spots in the final, but a tricky fourth place in the running order has caused Latvia to fall slightly in 11th. Then its Denmark in 12th and Armenia in 13th, with the songs tightly packed together on 43, 40 and 38 points respectively.

The bottom three songs in The Model’s projection of Semi-Final Two are predicted to have a tougher time getting into the final, though. Serbia and Montenegro are 14th and 15th, despite Serbia’s strong spot as the penultimate song in this semi-final, while Mariam Shengelia and Georgia are now projected to bring up the rear.

Grand Final

Onto the Grand Final, and to answer a question – what has changed in two weeks for France to now be projected to win Eurovision 2025?

One answer is that the update in the jury/televote splits has caused some changes to how the entries are treated in both votes. In this, France have gained with the juries, while Sweden have lost out in the jury vote much more heavily. While KAJ can still achieve a strong jury result, this projection has seen them lose 66 jury points.

However, the main reason is that France has positive momentum in the odds. As there’s been no running order announcement for the Grand Final and won’t be until the day before the final, France’s rise has mostly come from the song gaining with the bookmakers and improving in community rankings since “Maman” made its debut two weeks ago.

The Model now projecting a French victory also reflects a strong recent trend at Eurovision – that of the “jury landslide”. France is now being projected to take a huge 317 points with the juries, a total that while not on the level of Loreen and Nemo’s recent landslides, still gives it a strong advantage over its rivals.

In the jury vote, France’s huge taking not only ensures points for itself, but removes them from their rivals. Across the jury simulation, there’s a clear set of favourites emerging, with Austria and the Netherlands also predicted to score 200+ points, while KAJ and Sweden aren’t far behind.

All of these big jury scorers, though, means that there are fewer points to go around down the leaderboard. Songs like Czechia and Switzerland are benefitting from having more traditional jury appeal here, too, meaning televote friendly songs like Estonia, San Marino and Australia are all projected to score only a handful of points further down.

With The Model simulating a jury vote that is more definitive in which songs are its favourites, even some of the bigger contenders are struggling to make ground. Erika Vikman, seen as a strong favourite earlier in the season for Finland with “ICH KOMME”, finds herself with just 82 points from the jury here, causing her to miss out on the top 5.

However, in this early stage of the season, there is still room for a lot of movement here. As we get closer to the contest, predictions begin to firm up, with songs predicted to do well climbing further and further in probability for the win while others lose ground. A song getting an odds boost in the upcoming pre-party season could claim a lot of points here!

Over in the public vote, Sweden are still projected to be leading here with 266 points, putting them 34 points ahead of Israel. There’s huge support here for Finland, but after their jury result, they aren’t able to get enough combined points to mount a serious challenge on the win in this projection.

But perhaps most notable is France’s position – fifth. Much like Switzerland last year, who placed fifth in the televote, the strength of the expected jury support for France in The Model means the system thinks it can still take the win in this position. This reflects a trend in recent years where a more divided public vote, and more unified jury voting, has seen the balance of power shift towards jurors in deciding a winner.

While many of the songs towards the higher end are doing equally well in the jury and televote, some songs are similarly balanced but suffering for it.

A great example is the United Kingdom, where Remember Monday are predicted to come last in the juries and fifth-last in the televote with 16 and 22 points respectively. The Model thinks that the UK could struggle, with neither jury nor public fully embracing “What The Hell Just Happened?”

Even songs that are expected to have televote strength aren’t being predicted by The Model to go as high as others are expecting. Malta is projected to score only 70 points with the public vote, while despite being number one on Spotify’s Global Viral 50 chart earlier this month, Germany’s “Baller” is also projected to score only 60 points.

Once again, at this early stage, there’s still huge potential for movement in the televote. With so many countries packed tightly together in the mid-pack, it only takes a small shift in the momentum to make a big difference in the points The Model projects.

Here’s the full overall results of The Model’s latest projection:

France is projected to take the victory, backed by a huge jury vote, while Sweden takes runner-up spot by getting strong support in the public vote. Following them in the Top 5 is Austria in third place on 411 points, still well within touching distance of the two countries ahead, while the Netherlands and Israel keep their fourth and fifth places from the last projection.

Austria is a song that has done very well in the combined vote, coming third and only within a handful of points of seriously challenging for the win. JJ’s song “Wasted Love” is predicted to do better than Sweden in the jury and France in the public vote, but despite this is expected to finish behind both of them – a potential indication of what could prevent Austria turning a high position in the odds and community rankings into a win.

Following them in the Top 10 is Finland in sixth place, and then Ukraine (with a predictably strong televote) taking seventh place. Albania are tied for eighth in this projection, with Shkodra Elektronike’s “Zjerm” seen as solid on both sides, but perhaps needing more support in the odds to make it a true contender. Italy join them in the tie, while Klavdia turns a ninth place in the semi-final into 10th in the Grand Final for Greece – we hope that makes Greek television happy to cover The Model again!

How Accurate is this Projection?

It’s important not to view this as an absolute prediction of Eurovision 2025. Instead, it’s better to view it as a solid indication of the direction the contest could be heading in.

Through the next few weeks, the data around Eurovision 2025 will continue to change. Betting odds will firm up, community rankings will begin to cement themselves, and this will mean that The Model reflects this.

While KAJ are currently projected to score 484 points, The Model should adjust to raise the total of the favourites and reduce the total for other entries as the contest comes closer. Throughout the lead-up to Eurovision 2025, though, The Model will make further projections that hopefully bring us closer to what will happen in Basel.

How Can I Follow ‘The Model’?

From today until the contest, The Model will make a series of projections of what the Eurovision results could be if the contest was held that day.

We’ll make new projections using the system at key moments in the lead-up to the contest. At every point, the projections will change as the data and opinion around the contest shifts, meaning every projection is a new Eurovision to explore.

The full results of each projection will be published on the Eurovoix website. So, whether you just want to know who might win or want to dive deep into every bit of data, you can spend as much time as you want with The Model.

If you love Eurovision, love making predictions or just love numbers, The Model will visualise Eurovision in a completely new way. Make sure to check back on Eurovoix’s website and social media so you don’t miss The Model’s next projection.

Image Source: Damien Krisl / France Télévisions

Posted by:James Stephenson

I’m proud to be a writer at Eurovoix, and even more proud to be creator and producer of the Eurovoix Podcast.