For the second time in as many games, the Portland Trail Blazers host the Phoenix Suns at Moda Center.
Portland shocked Phoenix on Saturday night, winning by 21 points to drop the Suns to 25-23 on the season. Portland is still on the outside of the play-in tournament picture, but it has won seven of its last 10 games heading into the trade deadline later this week.
While the Blazers won’t be buyers – if anything they’ll sell some pieces – they could pose a threat to Phoenix as short home underdogs. The Blazers are 14-8 against the spread as home dogs – one of the best marks in the NBA.
Still, should we be buying this team during a hot stretch after playing a rather pedestrian brand of basketball to start the 2024-25 regular season?
Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and the Suns need every game they can get in the Western Conference playoff race, so back-to-back losses to the likely lottery bound Blazers would certainly hurt.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Western Conference battle.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Suns Injury Report
Trail Blazers Injury Report
Phoenix Suns Best NBA Prop Bet
Richards had 10 boards in just 25 minutes in the loss to Portland on Saturday, and since joining the Suns he’s picked up 10 or more rebounds in five of eight games, averaging 10.9 per game.
Portland is just 18th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game, and Richards has looked like Phoenix’s best option at center at this point in the campaign. I’ll back him to clear double-digit boards again on Monday.
Portland Trail Blazers Best NBA Prop Bet
Blazers wing Toumani Camara is one of their more intriguing young pieces, and he’s averaging 10.1 points while shooting 44.7 percent from the field and 35.1 percent from 3-point range.
Over his last 17 games, Camara is averaging 12.5 points on 9.5 shots per game, clearing 9.5 points in 12 of those matchups. The Blazers wing also had 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting against the Suns on Saturday.
The Suns may be the worst team in the NBA against the spread this season, but they have performed well as road favorites, covering in seven of 13 games while posting an average scoring margin of +4.5 points per game.
Now, Phoenix did lose as a road favorite (albeit on the second night of a back-to-back) against these Trail Blazers on Saturday night, but I’m not sold on this recent hot stretch for Portland.
Over the 10-game stretch where Portland has won seven of 10 games, it has beaten a struggling Orlando team twice, the Charlotte Hornets, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Chicago and Miami. Only Milwaukee is truly outside of the play-in tournament picture out of all of those teams, and many of them (Orlando, Charlotte and Miami especially) have been dealing with important players being in and out of the lineup.
Phoenix needs every win it can get to avoid the play-in in the West – and it did dismantle the Golden State Warriors on Friday night before Saturday’s loss. Phoenix is just 2-6-1 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, so it’s not surprising that it came out flat against Portland.
I’m expecting a different result this time around. While Portland outranks the Suns in net rating over its last 10 games, the Blazers are still just 26th in that statistic and 25th in offensive rating in the 2024-25 season.
At some point, Portland is going to come back to earth, and I’m selling high on Monday night.
Pick: Suns -5 (-108)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
