For India, Donald Trump's tariffs could have been worse

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Good morning. It’s been more than 24 hours since Donald Trump’s tariff offensive but analysts around the world are still trying to figure out what its true impact will be. Yesterday was one for parsing the difference between “catastrophe” and “disaster”, and we’ll be doing some of that in today’s newsletter. If you read to the end, we also have some weight-loss tips for you (well not quite, but you’ll see).

Trump’s tariff offensive

Depending on the time of the day yesterday, the impact of Donald Trump’s “liberation day” announcements may have seemed better or worse than expected for India. As the dust settled, and when viewed in comparison with other countries (especially in Asia), the overall sense was that the country managed to get off relatively lightly with just a 27 per cent levy on its goods.

The top three categories of goods exported from India to the US are electronics, gems and jewellery, and pharmaceuticals. Pharmaceuticals, which constitute 14 per cent of total exports currently, were exempt from the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs. With China and Vietnam respectively facing tariffs of up to 54 per cent and 46 per cent respectively, India’s electronics industry, which is worth about $10bn, is also counting itself lucky. This will give a further fillip to the government’s $2.7bn production-linked incentive scheme. The worst affected will probably be the $10bn diamonds and gems industry, as it moves from zero duties currently to 27 per cent.

For India, the announcements have further underscored the importance and urgency of getting a bilateral trade agreement with the US signed. However, this also complicates ongoing negotiations with other trade partners, most significantly the EU and the UK. Any concessions made to Washington will be demanded by these countries as well. The “better off than our neighbours” argument may seem comforting in the immediate aftermath of the announcements. But given Trump is punishing those that export the most, the tariffs are also a reminder that India has yet to achieve its ambitions of becoming a manufacturing and exporting powerhouse.

Yesterday New Delhi maintained a studied silence, with no senior government official coming forward to make a statement about the impact these taxes will have on domestic economic growth or the export segment. The commerce ministry released an anodyne statement saying it was “carefully examining the implications” of the announcement. India’s strategy is to quietly work on the trade agreement in the background, without saying anything that will provoke Trump’s ire. It is, all things considered, a wise way of dealing with an unpredictable, more powerful adversary, as anyone who has got into a scrap in a schoolyard can attest.

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How to get a flat stomach

A pharmacist displays a box of Mounjaro — Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro drug has been launched in India © Reuters

Now to “lighter” things. If the clickbaity subhead above was as irresistible for you as it is for me, then this will be interesting: pharmaceutical major Eli Lilly has now launched its blockbuster drug Mounjaro in India. Targeted at obesity and diabetes, the drug will be available here as a weekly injection priced at Rs4,375 ($50) for a 5mg vial and Rs3,500 for a 2.5mg vial.

Home to a quarter of the world’s diabetics, India is sometimes called the diabetes capital of the world. Some 200mn Indians suffer from the disease, and the number is expected to double in the next 20 years. This is on account of both genetic as well as lifestyle factors. The “skinny fat” body type — high body fat percentage and low muscle mass, typically characterised by a big belly on a thin frame — is common among Indians. The lifestyle impact of the disease is just beginning to show as higher disposable incomes in the past three decades have resulted in people eating richer food more frequently.

All of this is great for Eli Lilly’s bottom line, especially with its competitors late to enter the Indian market. Novo Nordisk, which manufactures the competing Ozempic and Wegovy, is hastening its launch in India, according to reports. It was originally scheduled for 2026, but is now looking at a mid- or late-2025 date. The patent for semaglutide, the technical name for the Danish drugmaker’s two rival drugs, is expiring in January 2026, which means cheaper generic treatments can flood the market.

If you’d prefer losing weight through more traditional practices, an interesting study released this week suggests that intermittent fasting is more effective than restricting your calories through dieting. The researchers claim eating 80 per cent less on fasting days was easier for the subjects than counting calories every day. I am tempted to try this, but am genuinely concerned about the safety of people around me when I’m “hangry”.

Would you use a weight-loss drug, take up intermittent fasting, or cut calories to lose weight? Let us know at indiabrief@ft.com

Go figure

Stock markets around the world reacted sharply to Trump’s “liberation day” announcements, which wiped out about $2.5tn of market value in Wall Street equities. Here are some key indices.

Read, hear, watch

I am not sure how I landed on a list of great romances in literary fiction (manifesting much?), but it led me to the Catalan novel Boulder, by Eva Baltasar (translated by Julia Sanches). This slim 100-page novel, which was shortlisted for the International Booker prize in 2023, is the story of a woman who works as a cook in a ship who meets and falls in love. Samsa, her partner, then gets a job in Reykjavik and the two women decide to move there. I don’t want to give too much of the plot away but the book is an exquisite piece of work about love, family and choices in the modern world. It is written so beautifully that I often found myself holding my breath while reading it.

I have also, after a very long time, resumed my tennis lessons. Let’s just say they have not been going well. If you have any tips or tricks, or links to great video tutorials, please do send them my way.