Disney‘s Rachel Zegler– and Gad Gadot-starring Snow White is headed to an estimated loss of $115 million after all global home entertainment, TV and Disney+ ancillaries, according to distribution sources Monday. The loss, which was expected, is based on a final worldwide box office of $225M.
Broken down, the global cume is based on a possible $100M take at the domestic box office, which is under the $115M gross of 2019’s Dumbo (another live-action remake of a classic Disney animated feature), and a $125M overseas total. Snow White, which hit theaters March 21, ended its second U.S. weekend Sunday with $14.2M — off 66%, steeper than Dumbo and the Maleficent movies — and $36.3M global, for a running worldwide cume of $143.1M.
Snow White per our forecasts will clear $295M in revenues from $101M global film rentals, $62M in worldwide home entertainment, $130M in streaming and TV revenues, and $2M from merchandise. Note that when Disney+ buys the title from itself for its streaming window, it’s not a quick and easy calculation of 10% of domestic box office, as was the case back in the days of Pay 1 windows. Rather, it’s a more byzantine computation based on myriad factors, I’ve been told. Counter this with $410M in feature expenses that are comprised of a $270M net production price tag (thanks to the starts and stops due to the strikes, and a fire on the UK set), a $111M global P&A and $29M in residuals and other expenses.
Keep in mind that the above doesn’t indicated future monies from theme parks or cruise ancillaries down the road. Also, realize that once Snow White hits Disney+, it could take on a viewership life of its own and have a second halo that’s unforeseen at this point.
In a battered box office where brand is king, Snow White wasn’t a dumb decision for Disney, it was logical: (500 Days) of Summer Marc Webb directing, Wicked‘s Marc Platt producing and Oscar winners Pasek and Paul writing songs. Barbie‘s Greta Gerwig has fingerprints on the script.
Still, what does everyone learn from this exercise?
Clearly, the age-old adage that controversy is bad for a movie’s publicity, and Disney went through this before in the change-up between Lord & Miller as directors to Ron Howard on Solo: A Star Wars Story. The movie’s future box office fate was sealed from that moment on becoming one of the lowest grossing Star Wars movies at $393M WW. Zegler’s comments on Snow White didn’t help, nor did her pushback to trolls ranting about a Latina in the title role (Nonetheless, right wing media and these trolls were never ever going to see this movie, nor change their minds about it), and the anti-Trump outrage in a pro-Trump role isn’t proper business for anyone. But we can’t deny her sublime talent, nor should she be punished. This happens with young stars who are unabashed to share their opinions, having been raised in a social media world.
How to fix? Disney could have screened the movie early for social media influencers to get great word of mouth out there. Still, as we reported, the uphill with Snow White is the fact that it’s a feature take of a classic Disney toon (Dumbo, Maleficient), and those have a very different box office outcome than anything being adapted past the 1989 Jeffrey Katzenberg musical renaissance (Little Mermaid, Aladdin, Lion King). Alice in Wonderland is the exception with a $1 billion global take made with the acid stylings of Tim Burton and Johnny Depp when he was hot as hell in a pre-streaming 2010.
But off that point of Alice in Wonderland: if this feature live action adaptation of the old Disney toon vault (pre 1989) is to survive going forward under the Disney Studios Boss David Greenbaum regime, it’s not in a straight-up take of the IP, rather an avant garde one ala the Emma Stone fashionista punk rock Cruella (which is getting a sequel). Never mind Cruella‘s $233.5M global take; remember, it was impacted by a Disney+ theatrical/PVOD day-and-date strategy coming out of Covid.
