The day began on a business note. Asked whether Elon Musk, earlier in the day, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi for personal business or as a representative of the US government, President Donald Trump said it could well be for his companies. He also immediately added that it was very difficult to do business in India, especially because of tariffs.
The day also ended on a business note. After the summit meeting, both Trump and Modi spelled out a list of interstate business deals. No flourish of high principles impeded the flow of business. No “defining relationship of the century”, as Barack Obama would often say. Beyond the tired rhetoric of friendship between the world’s largest democracy and its oldest, democracy or freedom, as terms of discourse, did not figure in the public statements.
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This was neither surprising nor unexpected. For both Modi and Trump, winning elections is the only meaning of democracy. It is not a higher value to be promoted, nor does it mean enlarging the sphere of citizen freedoms. Indeed, during the press conference, Trump spoke of his great desire to strike deals with China’s President Xi Jinping, saying Covid put a serious pause, in his first term, to an emerging personal warmth between them as well as a possibility of deepening state-level cooperation.
What matters to Trump is how powerful a country is, not how undemocratic it might be. Vladimir Putin remains an object of fascination for him, and the idea that the less powerful Ukraine should, and can, be persuaded to part with territory is now being openly articulated in Trump’s policy circles, including just before the meeting with Modi. Canada as a 51st state of the US follows the same principle. The less powerful, in Trump’s view, should accept the supremacy of the more powerful, for life otherwise could be made rather tough and unpleasant. The issue is not equality or dignity; it is pure power.
Modi had to operate within this larger Trumpian framework of politics. Given India’s relative power, Modi did not come to the meeting as an equal partner, but as a junior partner. Consider what Modi has agreed to do on trade. In full public view, Trump took Modi to task for India having onerous tariffs, and reiterated the idea of “reciprocal tariffs”. If India levies a 30 per cent tariff on US goods, the US will do the same. He softened the blow a little by stating it was a new trade principle for the US now. It would even affect a friendly European Union, a larger trade partner.
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What was Modi’s response? He said he would aim at more than doubling the trade to $500 billion by 2030. Last year, the value of US-India trade was $192 billion. India’s exports to the US, both goods and services, were worth $119 billion and imports worth $73 billion, leading to a US trade deficit of $46 billion. India, of course, is not even among the top 10 trading partners of the US. Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union are the top four, trading goods and services worth between $800 billion to $1.3 trillion. America’s trade deficit with them ranges between $200-$300 billion, which is larger than the total volume of trade with India. That is why the loudest complaints have been against them.
But for India to reach $500 billion by 2030 means not only that it will lose $45-$50 billion in income from the current trade, but also import US goods and services worth $250 billion, while exporting to the US for a roughly identical amount. That is what accepting Trump’s trade doctrine would signify.
I don’t wish to be misread. My claim is not that India should not lower tariffs. A more open trade regime will arguably be good in the longer run. But that is not what is involved here. India will lower tariffs to accommodate Trump’s power, not decrease them across the board for the sake of economic efficiency.
A similar logic applies to Modi’s public pronouncement that he would take back all illegal Indian immigrants in the US. The latest estimates are from 2022. They range from 2,20,000 (Department of Homeland Security) to over 7,00,000 (Pew Research Center). Again, India should unquestionably accept “illegals” back. But that is not why Modi is doing it. He is serving Trump’s greater power on a key issue of importance to him. In the press conference, Modi blamed the illegal Indian immigration on some gangs duping poor Indians, essentially charging the gangs with human trafficking. That mixes up causes and consequences. The real reason is that the Indian economy under Modi is not generating enough jobs, making it possible for gangs to sell illusions.
The Trump-Modi summit was, of course, not without benefits to India, even if the benefits for the US are greater. Ratcheting up the defence partnership with the US is a good idea. For far too long, India has relied on Russian weaponry. Russia may have won battles in Ukraine, but even after nearly three years, it has not yet won the war against its smaller neighbour. Among other things, it speaks ill of the quality of Russian weapons. India must diversify its sources of arms as well as engage in co-production and technological upgrading.
Collaboration in cutting-edge new technologies — artificial intelligence, quantum computing etc — is also highly beneficial. India and Silicon Valley have a long tradition of cooperation in the information technology sector. But the sector is changing rapidly and India needs to gear up. China might already have stolen a march on some of these new technological domains, despite being behind in the 1990s and 2000s. Incidentally, this is the only type of cooperation for which Trump praised India’s “intellects” and national achievements.
At one level, the most surprising silence was on H-1B visas, of which India has been a great beneficiary. At another level, however, it is not a big surprise. The duel between San Francisco and MAGA, two different bases of Trump, remains unsettled. Musk and his ilk would like Indian tech professionals to come in large numbers. The MAGA base thinks Indians work for smaller salaries, compared to American professionals, thus stealing jobs.
After all is said and done, Trump’s desire to demand subservience to power was expected. That Modi would succumb so easily came as a surprise.
The writer is Sol Goldman professor of International Studies and the Social Sciences at Brown University, where he also directs the Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia at the Watson Institute. Views are personal
